• Q = {S1, S2},

  • Σ = {0, 1},

  • q0 = S1,

  • F = {S1}
    1 − (1/R0)1/(1+2CV2)

  • 1 − (1/R0)1/(1+2CV2)

  • ∑ i = 1 n p i x i ≤ M . {_{i=1}^{n}p_{i}x_{i}\leq M.}

  • x i ≥ 0 ∀ i ∈ { 1 , 2 , … , n } {x_{i}\geq i\in \{1,2,,n\}}



Mathematical models are a ‘process of encoding and decoding reality, in which a natural phenomenon is reduced to a formal numerical expression by a casual structure’. In other words, they are based on assumptions when wet data is limited or absent.


For example, if asked to provide a mathematical model on the potential outcomes of a meteor striking Earth, you might start with a death toll range of between zero and 7.38 billion. The model would then be expanded to include calculations such as speed and size of meteor, place of impact, time of day, axis position etc. What a mathematical model can’t accurately predict is how people will respond to certain events. It can’t predict anomalies such as Elon Musk destroying the meteor before impact and what it absolutely doesn’t do, is factor in the reliability of the modeller.


So if previous models by Modeller A (let’s call him Neil) predicted 200M would die from Bird Flu (it was under 300), 65,000 from Swine Flu (under 500), 50,000 from BSE (under 200) and led to the needless culling of 6.5m cattle during the foot and mouth crisis in the mistaken belief animals were infectious for days before showing any symptoms (sound familiar?) you’d surely factor this into the model, if not mathematically then logically or instinctively.

So no, lockdown had nothing to do with following the science as there wasn't any. It was to do with power and what they thought they could get away with. It was - as quoted by one SAGE sub-committee member - a panic measure because they ‘couldn’t think of anything better to do’.